Hamas Refuses to Disarm as Gaza Peace Deal Stalls

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday rejected a 15-point Gaza roadmap backed by President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, telling his cabinet that Israeli forces will not withdraw until Hamas is “genuinely disarmed.”

“It needs to be genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament,” Netanyahu said, pushing back on a plan that would link phased IDF withdrawal to steps toward Hamas demilitarization.

The move drew immediate criticism from voices in Western media and among some Trump administration intermediaries, who have framed Israel’s disarmament demand as the primary obstacle to a Gaza ceasefire. Israeli officials counter that the dispute is over sequencing: withdraw first, they warn, and Hamas keeps its arsenal intact.

That argument finds support in Palestinian polling. A PCPSR survey conducted October 22–25, 2025 found 53% of Palestinians say Hamas was right to launch the October 7 attack, 86% deny Hamas committed atrocities against Israeli civilians, and nearly 70% oppose disarming Hamas even to end the war permanently. Among Gazans, 55% oppose disarmament, 68% reject an Arab security force to oversee demilitarization, and two-thirds reject a demilitarized Palestinian state even if it ended the “occupation.”

Israel has set two conditions for ending the war and withdrawing: the return of all hostages and verified disarmament of Hamas. The logic, Israeli officials say, is straightforward: you cannot disarm an organization whose own population refuses to surrender its weapons. If Israel withdraws before those weapons are gone, Hamas survives the war with its army intact, free to rearm, regroup, and repeat October 7. Hamas has embedded its military infrastructure inside civilian sites, including mosques, schools, and hospitals, with its command center operating beneath Gaza’s largest hospital. Disarmament without IDF enforcement means those weapons stay hidden.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal would defeat PA President Abbas 63–27 in a hypothetical presidential race, and Hamas holds a 44% to 30% lead over Fatah in legislative polling. The idea that Hamas does not represent Palestinian political will is contradicted by Palestinians’ own stated preferences.

External rearming makes the sequence even more urgent. In August 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to keeping Hamas armed, telling the group’s new political leader, “We are with you, and we support you in every action you take.” Israel has privately told the Trump administration there is “no alternative” to the IDF for enforcing disarmament. Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter confirmed there can be no peace in Gaza unless Hamas hands over all hostages and disarms.

“The population of the Gaza Strip is supportive of Hamas. They embrace that genocidal ideology,” said Pesach Wolicki of Eyes on Israel in October 2025.

The real obstacle is not Israel’s refusal to sign a document. It is that nearly 70% of Palestinians oppose the disarmament required to make any withdrawal durable, while Iran pledges to keep Hamas armed and no international force has a credible plan to enforce compliance. Under those conditions, withdrawing before disarmament is not a ceasefire. It is a countdown to the next round.